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How amazing to hear the Times speak of "the cancer
establishment." And that establishment was not slow in
responding. Four days later, ten US medical groups,
including the American Cancer Society and the American
Medical Association, placed a full-page ad in the New
York Times, supporting mammography.
The ad coincided
with an article by Claudia Henschke, MD, of Cornell
Medical Center, also published in the Lancet, which
analyzed one 1988 clinical trial from Malmoe, Sweden.
She concluded that mammography did, indeed, reduce
deaths.
How could these researchers be so far apart in
analysis of the same studies? Because Goetzsche and
Olsen looked at all the people who had died of any causes,
while Henschke looked only at people who had
specifically died of breast cancer in one study, and
ignored all other causes of death.
This is comparing apples
and oranges. Overall survival is a more meaningful
outcome than disease-specific survival. The reason is
that the treatments themselves may cause deaths. (Even
Henschke concedes that early detection and treatment
may be associated with "somewhat increased mortality"
in earlier years). By failing to take account of all
causes of death one conveys an unduly positive
estimate of the intervention.
...here is the actual opinion of the Lancet's
editor-in-chief, Richard Horton, MD. "The public
believes mammography to be far more effective than it
really is," he said. "Women deserve an accurate
assessment of the benefits or harm from screening
mammography. That means encouraging an open debate
about the issue."
Moss Reports 2/05/02
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